With properties still far from their historical highs and yields close to 6.5% annually in dollars, the Buenos Aires real estate market retains long-term potential
The number of new constructions and square meters under construction has been decreasing. If there are fewer new properties entering the market while demand continues to recover, the pressure on prices may increase.
And demand is already showing significant signs: in June 2026, nearly 6,000 deeds were executed in the City of Buenos Aires, a historically high level.
In other words, the market is absorbing the existing stock while the production of new units decreases.
It's not just appreciation
While we wait for a potential recovery in the price of the square meter, a property can also generate income.
Currently, properties can be found with gross yields close to 6.5% per year in dollars, depending on the property, its location, and the rental contract.
That is why our thesis does not solely depend on the price rising tomorrow.
We have a real asset that can generate income while we wait for potential appreciation.
Our vision
Today we see a particularly interesting combination:
prices still well below the real highs of 2018 + recovery of demand + return of mortgage credit + lower future supply + income in dollars.
If the square meter simply recovered the real values it reached in January 2018, from current levels we would be talking about an appreciation close to 60% in dollars.
Of course, no one can guarantee that this will happen or when.
But for these reasons we believe that the Buenos Aires real estate market still has significant potential and that we are facing a particularly favorable scenario for those investing with a long-term perspective.
The value of the square meter in the City of Buenos Aires has historically behaved in a cyclical manner: it has had periods of strong increases and periods of significant corrections.
After the crisis of 2001-2002, one of the most important upward cycles of recent decades began. Between 2002 and January 2018, the value of the square meter in dollars adjusted for inflation rose by approximately 200%.
Then exactly the opposite happened. Between January 2018 and October 2023, properties fell by approximately 50% in real terms, that is, measured in dollars and adjusted for U.S. inflation.
From that low point in 2023 until August 2026, the market began to recover and has accumulated an increase of nearly 25%.
The calculation that explains why we are still far from 2018
Percentages can be misleading, so let's look at it with a very simple example:
Let's imagine that a property that was worth 100 in 2018. With a 50% drop, in 2023 it was worth 50. If since then it has recovered by 25%, today it is worth 62.5.
How much would it need to increase from 62.5 to return to 100? Approximately 60%.
That is the central point: even after the recovery of recent years, simply returning to the real values of 2018 would imply an appreciation of nearly 60% in dollars.
And we are talking about returning to the previous maximum, not exceeding it.
Why are we optimistic?
The peak of 2018 was reached in an Argentina that had a fiscal deficit, inflation, and devaluation. Today we find some different factors: fiscal surplus, inflation that has been slowing down, greater exchange rate stability, and the return of mortgage credit.
Additionally, in recent years we have seen a strong recovery of other Argentine assets. Dollar bonds, stocks, and salaries measured in dollars have risen. Real estate, in comparison, remains much more lagged.
Another factor that we consider fundamental is added to this: future supply.
