The value of the square meter in the City of Buenos Aires has historically behaved in a cyclical manner: it has had periods of strong increases and periods of significant corrections.
After the crisis of 2001-2002, one of the most important upward cycles of recent decades began. Between 2002 and January 2018, the value of the square meter in dollars adjusted for inflation rose by approximately 200%.
Then the exact opposite happened. Between January 2018 and October 2023, properties fell by approximately 50% in real terms, that is, measured in dollars and adjusted for U.S. inflation.
From that low point in 2023 until August 2026, the market began to recover and has accumulated an increase of nearly 25%.
The calculation that explains why we are still far from 2018
Percentages can be misleading, so let's look at it with a very simple example:
Let's imagine that a property that was worth 100 in 2018. With a 50% drop, in 2023 it was worth 50. If since then it has recovered by 25%, today it is worth 62.5.
How much would it need to rise from 62.5 to return to 100? Approximately 60%.
That is the central point: even after the recovery of recent years, simply returning to the real values of 2018 would imply an appreciation of nearly 60% in dollars.
And we are talking about returning to the previous maximum, not exceeding it.
Why are we optimistic?
The peak of 2018 was reached in an Argentina that had a fiscal deficit, inflation, and devaluation. Today we find some different factors: fiscal surplus, inflation that is slowing down, greater exchange rate stability, and the return of mortgage credit.
Additionally, in recent years we have seen a strong recovery of other Argentine assets. Dollar bonds, stocks, and wages measured in dollars have risen. Real estate, in comparison, remains much more lagging.
Another factor that we consider fundamental is added to this: future supply.
