August inflation: consultancies cut their projections and expect it to drop to 1.6%

The main private consulting firms cut their inflation projections for August during the last week and now estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be between 1.6% and 1.9%.

If this scenario is confirmed, inflation would show a significant slowdown compared to the 2.1% recorded in July and could return to levels similar to those of mid-2025.

The change in expectations was mainly driven by the lower increase in food and beverage prices, as well as a moderation of the seasonal components that had exerted pressure during July.

Consultants anticipate lower inflation

Among the private surveys reflecting the change in trend is that of Eco Go, which projected a monthly inflation of 1.6% for August.

The consulting firm recorded a variation of just 0.3% in food during the second week of the month, a behavior that contributed to reducing the estimate for the general index.

Another relevant measurement was that of Analytica, which recorded a rise of 0.5% in food and beverages during the third week of August. The average for the last four weeks stood at 1.7%.

Within that survey, vegetables showed an increase of 4.8%, while bread and cereals rose 2.2%. In contrast, fruits recorded an increase of 0.9% and meats and derivatives only 0.7%.

The highest estimate is 1.9%

On the other end is EconViews, which maintains a forecast of 1.9% for August, although it does not rule out that the final figure could be a tenth lower.

“We have 1.9% for August with a risk that it could be a tenth lower,” explained Alejandro Giacoia, an economist at the consulting firm.

According to the specialist, the food survey shows a variation close to 2% for the last four weeks, so he finds it difficult for the general CPI to be significantly below that level.

However, Giacoia highlighted that seasonal prices could work in favor during August, especially those related to tourism, which had recorded significant increases during the winter holidays.

Inflation could return to mid-2025 levels

The scenario that analysts are considering implies a possible reduction of 0.5 percentage points compared to July, when the CPI reached 2.1%.

The slowdown would allow monthly inflation to return to levels similar to those recorded in June 2025, reinforcing the moderation trend that the Government has been highlighting.

In July, part of the acceleration had been linked to transitory factors, including the winter holidays and price increases in sectors such as recreation, culture, restaurants, and hotels.

For August, however, those effects would lose strength and allow for a more moderate evolution of the index.

Bausili anticipates inflation lower than in July

The economic team also maintains an optimistic view on price developments.