After several months in which the market seemed to have entered a waiting stage, last week left a signal that deserves attention. Not because the economy changed overnight, but because something equally important changed: the political perception of investors.
The decisions made by the Government in recent days seem to have achieved a goal that until recently seemed difficult: to rekindle the market's enthusiasm for the Argentine scenario. And financial assets reacted accordingly.
Why the market is becoming enthusiastic again
The most symbolic data was the Country Risk, which fell to the 400 basis points range, the lowest level since Javier Milei took office. This is not just a number. The Country Risk reflects the premium that investors demand to lend money to Argentina compared to the United States. The lower this differential, the greater the confidence in the country's ability to sustain its economic and financial program.
But perhaps more important than the level reached is the message it conveys. The market is starting to discount a scenario that just a few months ago seemed much more uncertain.
Argentine stocks also sent a very strong signal. Especially on Friday, the ADRs listed in New York recorded significant increases, with a special prominence of banks. Entities such as Grupo Financiero Galicia, BBVA Argentina, Banco Macro, and Supervielle led the gains.
It is no coincidence that it is precisely the banks that are leading the movement. Historically, the financial sector acts as a kind of "thermometer" of confidence in the country. When investors believe that the economy can stabilize, that credit will start to grow again and that the risks of a macroeconomic crisis are decreasing, banks tend to be the main beneficiaries.
And that seems to be exactly what happened.
What changed?
Beyond the economic data, the market seems to have found greater tranquility in the Government's political strategy. In recent weeks, the Milei administration has shown a greater capacity to build agreements, manage conflicts, and organize the political front in light of the electoral calendar.
For financial markets, politics matters as much as the economy. In fact, many times it matters more.
Because an economic program can be technically impeccable, but if investors believe it will not have enough political backing to sustain itself over time, they are unlikely to assign a high valuation to Argentine assets.
Today the reading seems different
More and more operators are beginning to assign an increasing probability that Javier Milei will politically consolidate his project and arrive with good chances for a potential presidential reelection.
This is not an ideological issue. Markets do not vote. Markets discount probabilities.
