The Trump administration believes that Mojtaba Jamenei is seeking to develop an advanced nuclear weapon

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Jamenei, has a much greater disposition than his father and predecessor, Ali Jamenei, to push for the development of a nuclear weapon. This assessment, shared by U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports, could become a decisive factor as President Donald Trump considers whether to escalate military action against the Iranian regime.

According to U.S. assessments, Ali Jamenei, who died at the beginning of the war in an Israeli attack backed by U.S. intelligence, had maintained a less aggressive stance than his son regarding the development of a nuclear bomb. Several officials believe that this less hostile position of the former leader was influenced by a religious edict, or fatwa, that limited the use of nuclear weapons.

The situation is believed to have changed with Mojtaba Jamenei's rise to power. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that he and the hardline government that emerged after the removal of numerous Iranian leaders have greater nuclear ambitions. According to U.S. officials, Mojtaba would be interested in developing an advanced nuclear weapon, possibly a thermonuclear warhead that could be miniaturized and eventually mounted on a long-range missile.

This assessment is particularly relevant for the Trump administration, which faces the challenge of preventing the Iranian regime from rebuilding its nuclear capabilities and threatening the United States, Israel, and its allies. From this perspective, the military operations undertaken by Washington have managed, at least temporarily, to halt the advances of the Iranian nuclear program and demonstrate that the United States retains the capability to strike strategic facilities in Tehran.

In June 2025, Trump ordered strikes against three major Iranian nuclear facilities. Stealth B-2 bombers used the largest conventional bombs available in the U.S. Air Force arsenal against Fordo and Natanz, while Tomahawk missiles struck the Isfahan facility. Although Trump initially claimed that the targets had been virtually destroyed, early intelligence assessments were more cautious and estimated that the program had suffered a delay of several months.

Still, U.S. officials maintain that the strikes succeeded in temporarily freezing Iranian nuclear progress. According to assessments, if Tehran had immediately repaired its centrifuges or resumed enrichment elsewhere, the program could have recovered in approximately six months. However, Iran did not immediately reactivate all its facilities or fully resume enrichment activities.

The main concern now focuses on the underground complex known to the United States as ''Pickaxe Mountain''. U.S. officials assert that Iran has moved at least part of its centrifuges to that site, possibly to protect them from new airstrikes. The complex is deeply buried under a mountain and would be much more difficult to destroy with conventional weapons.

The Trump administration has made it clear that no Iranian facility can be considered untouchable. The president warned this week that ''Pickaxe Mountain'' could become a military target, while noting that the United States had not detected nuclear activity at the site. U.S. officials explained that Washington has presented Trump with various options and potential targets, although they avoided speculating on the decisions he might ultimately make.

Iran, for its part, has reportedly deployed ground forces around ''Pickaxe Mountain'' out of fear of a possible incursion by U.S. commandos. This move reflects Tehran's concern about a potential operation aimed at destroying the complex from within, given that its location could complicate a conventional airstrike.

Although U.S. authorities insist that Iran has not yet restarted its nuclear program, the essential elements for manufacturing a weapon, including its inventory of highly enriched uranium, remain available. For Washington, this situation poses a considerable risk, especially if the new Iranian leadership abandons the restrictions that characterized Ali Jamenei's era.

The fatwa issued by the former leader limited the use of nuclear weapons, but it never prevented radical sectors of the regime from developing the necessary capabilities to approach the manufacture of a bomb. Even before the war, U.S. officials had detected internal discussions about the possibility of developing a rudimentary weapon as a deterrent mechanism.

Now, according to intelligence agencies, Mojtaba Jamenei appears to aspire to something much more sophisticated. His eventual intention to advance toward a military nuclear capability reinforces the arguments of those who contend that Trump's pressure strategy is necessary to contain the Iranian regime and prevent it from obtaining a weapon capable of directly threatening the United States and its allies.

In this context, the Trump administration faces a crucial strategic decision. Any military escalation carries risks, but allowing Iran to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure could also lead to much greater long-term consequences. For U.S. officials, the priority remains to prevent Tehran from turning its nuclear capability into an irreversible military threat, while Washington keeps diplomatic and military options open to protect its interests and the security of its allies.