The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its technical report projecting a strong sustained growth, inflationary deceleration, and strengthening of reserves in the coming years, thanks to the successful economic program of the Government of Javier Milei.
The document, known as the Staff Report, presents projections until 2028 and supports the course adopted by the current libertarian administration, highlighting the impact of fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and economic openness.
Economic Growth
According to the report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by 3.5% in 2026, driven by a “robust private investment”, the dynamism of primary exports, and the recovery of construction, especially linked to road concessions. By 2027, growth would accelerate to 4%, while in 2028 it would be around 3.8%.
Javier Milei and Luis Caputo.
The organization also forecasts that, in the medium term, the economy will converge towards expansion rates close to 3% annually, as structural reforms deepen competitiveness and favor capital accumulation.
Inflation Reduction
In parallel, the IMF highlighted the ongoing disinflation process, one of the central axes of the economic program. Projections indicate that inflation would drop to 25% year-on-year by the end of 2026, down from the 31.5% estimated for 2025.
The trend would continue in the following years, with a decline to 12.5% in 2027 and 7.5% in 2028, approaching again single-digit levels, reflecting Milei's successful model.
The report emphasizes that this process will require the continuation of restrictive monetary policies and improvements in the operational framework, aiming to consolidate a credible and sustained nominal anchor over time.
President Javier Milei.
Fiscal Surplus
In fiscal matters, the Fund valued the strategy of balancing public accounts promoted by the Government. The primary surplus would remain around 1.4% of GDP in 2026, in line with the result achieved in 2025, and would begin to gradually increase to approach 2% by 2028.
According to the organization, this performance will be supported by expenditure containment, subsidy reductions, and the implementation of structural reforms in key areas such as the tax system, social security, and fiscal federalism.
On the external front, the IMF projects a progressive improvement in the current account deficit, which would decrease from 1.1% of GDP in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, and then drop to 0.6% in 2027 and 2028. This result would be driven by favorable terms of trade and greater contributions from strategic sectors such as energy and mining.
Furthermore, the report anticipates a strengthening of external financing flows, leveraged by a greater foreign direct investment, including projects under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), new corporate issuances, capital repatriation, and improved access to international credit.
In this context, the organization projects a strong accumulation of net international reserves of the Central Bank, which would exceed USD 8 billion in 2026, reach USD 11 billion in 2027, and arrive at USD 17 billion in 2028.
The IMF concludes that the combination of prudent macroeconomic policies, greater exchange rate flexibility, and reforms aimed at boosting exports will be key to consolidating a sustained growth and improving Argentina's access to international markets.
