Rafael Grossi was among the top three candidates with the most support to lead the UN

The Argentine Rafael Grossi is among the three candidates with the most support in the first informal vote held by the United Nations Security Council to determine the successor of António Guterres, whose term ends in December 2026.

Grossi received 7 votes, the same number as Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett led the first round with 8 votes. These are two leftist candidates seeking to take over the UN Secretary-General position.

Thus, the current director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is positioned among the main names in a race that is still open and will have new stages before it is determined who will occupy the UN Secretary-General role.

The deliberation took place this Friday behind closed doors and in a reserved and informal manner. The result does not constitute a definitive trend, but it represents an initial signal regarding the level of support each candidate has within the Security Council.

In Grossi's case, the voting resulted in 7 “Encouraged” votes, meaning endorsements, along with 6 “Discouraged” and 2 “No opinion”. Grynspan also received 7 “Encouraged” votes, but recorded 4 “Discouraged” and 4 “No opinion”. Rodrigues-Birkett, for her part, achieved 8 “Encouraged”, 3 “Discouraged” and 4 “No opinion”.

This instance is part of a process that still has a decisive stage ahead. The 15 members of the Security Council initially use a ballot of the same color to express their position on the candidates through the categories “Encouraged”, “Discouraged” and “No opinion”.

Grossi remains in the race for the Secretary-General position

The result places the Argentine among the three names that garnered the most support in this first informal assessment. Although Rodrigues-Birkett received one vote more, Grossi shares second place with Grynspan and keeps his chances of advancing in the race to succeed Guterres open.

In his candidacy letter, Grossi proposed a vision centered on the historical role of the organization: he advocates for a “return (of the UN) to its foundational bases: saving humanity from the scourge of war”.

The definition, however, will be influenced by the role of the five permanent members of the Security Council: the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. The five powers have veto rights and, so far, have not exercised them explicitly in this first instance.

The next stage is scheduled for mid-September. There, the five permanent members will have a differentiated participation through a ballot of a different color, in which they can express their position regarding each candidate.

This moment will be especially relevant for the candidacies, as the potential veto from any of the five permanent members could substantially alter the election scenario.

In this sense, the race to succeed Guterres is still not defined. The first vote left Rafael Grossi as one of the three candidates with the most support, in a competition that will now enter a phase of greater political and geopolitical weight.