Recovering Lost Reputation

Recovering Lost Reputation
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porEditorial Team
Argentina

The reform of the BCRA, the deceleration of inflation, the increase in exports, and the influx of capital strengthen the growth prospects for 2026

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The exchange balance of the Central Bank is giving us very promising figures. We are talking about the country's balance of payments measured from what has been realized, not from what has been accrued.

In the first 6 months of 2026, the current account left a surplus balance of U$S 2.867 billion, whereas in the first 6 months of 2025, it was in deficit by U$S 2.9 billion.

The financing needs in the first 6 months of 2026 were positive at U$S 786 million, while in the first 6 months of 2025, it had been surplus by U$S 11.49 billion.

What is happening in the external sector

I will cross-reference some data that speaks to the strength of the external sector. So far in 2026, the surplus of the goods trade balance totaled U$S 15.996 billion, while the purchase of cash and foreign currency for unspecified purposes by the non-financial private sector totaled U$S 12.957 billion. These same figures for 2025 were U$S 7.239 billion and U$S 8.767 billion. This implies that a year ago, dollar purchases were higher than the surplus of the goods trade balance, whereas in 2026, the opposite is true.

In the first 6 months of 2025, loans from the IMF plus international financial organizations totaled U$S 16.544 billion; in the first 6 months of 2026, they totaled U$S 281 million. Clearly, we are cutting dependence on credit from international organizations, and we have honored all debts without any issues.

In the first 6 months of 2025, financial loans that came from abroad for the private sector totaled U$S 7.450 billion, and the remittance of dividends was U$S 72 million. For the first 6 months of 2026, these amounts totaled U$S 10.785 billion and U$S 2.863 billion, respectively. Companies are taking more financing from abroad and remitting more profits, something we believe will generate a virtuous circle in the economy.

What are the main conclusions

The reform of the organic charter of the Central Bank deepens the structural reforms that this government is carrying out and enhances the good results observed in the economy.

Today, we do not depend on credits from international financial organizations; companies can remit dividends; financing from abroad is coming in; the balance of trade surplus is greater than the dollar purchases made by Argentines.

Looking at these numbers in perspective only reflects that the path taken is the correct one; structural reforms strengthen the path traveled, but reputation is earned by maintaining these policies over time. For this, continuity in economic and political lines is needed to enhance the achievements obtained so far.

 


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The new organic charter of the Central Bank, the decrease in the inflation rate, the increase in exports, less debt with international financial organizations, and greater capital inflow are the levers for growth in 2026

The reform of the organic charter of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) will allow the country to regain its lost reputation. The indiscriminate use and abuse of the BCRA's reserves to finance the treasury has left us with a history of disappointments, leading to an increase in inflation, more poverty, and consequently less prosperity for Argentines.

The mission of the BCRA ended up being a set of statements that contradicted each other and did not allow for the essential postulate for an economy, which is to preserve the value of the currency. Without currency, there is no possible sovereignty, sustainable development, and progress. The only mission that the BCRA will now have is to preserve the value of the currency. Coherence has returned.  

With the reform of the organic charter, a much stronger Central Bank will be born. The president will be elected by the Senate and can only be removed by a 2/3 majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. This will provide stability in the position of the country's monetary authority.

On the other hand, the Central Bank will not be able to finance the Treasury, provinces, and municipalities that have financing problems, which will allow it to accelerate the capitalization process; dividends will be used to reduce debt rather than being distributed, and it will allow us to have a strong currency.

Do not complain if there is no devaluation; we will have to be more productive and competitive, through greater investment.

The main challenges for Argentina

The reserves of the Central Bank should be 15% of GDP; therefore, the goal is for them to eventually total U$S 120 billion, net of bank reserves or swaps taken in the market. Although there is no official estimate of net reserves, they would amount to approximately U$S 11 billion, which implies that to achieve a reasonable goal that allows us to sleep peacefully, we need to accumulate reserves of about U$S 109 billion.

Argentina has a long road ahead. The problems will not be solved overnight, given the inherited situation. The reform of the BCRA's organic charter is a brilliant move by President Javier Milei, who presented a figure that reflects the accumulated inflation in our country since the Central Bank was created in 1935, amounting to 12,819,532,788,614,400,000%, a figure very difficult to repeat, and we simplify it by saying that our inflation from 1935 to date has been 13 trillion.

Argentina has experienced a path of destruction of its currency with the elimination of 13 zeros, almost a record among countries on the planet. Currently, the country has significantly reduced inflation from a peak of 271.5% annually in June 2024 to 33.5% in June 2026. From here on, the hardest path lies ahead, which is to bring inflation down to a single digit, something that will take time to achieve, as has happened in other countries, but we have no doubt that the implementation of sound fiscal and monetary policies will allow us to reach this goal in more reasonable timeframes.

Imagen 1440024

The results of fiscal order

Meanwhile, fiscal and monetary order is yielding astonishing results; in 2026, our exports are expected to reach another U$S 100 billion, and the trade surplus will amount to about U$S 24 billion, something unexpected in previous years.