Oil companies project exports of more than USD 41 billion annually by 2035, thanks to the management of Milei

Argentina is on track to become an energy exporting power in the next decade, in a global context marked by energy transition and the growing demand for hydrocarbons.

According to a study by the Hydrocarbons Exploration and Production Chamber (CEPH), the country could achieve energy exports of USD 41.758 million annually by 2035, provided that stable macroeconomic conditions and a strong increase in investment are consolidated.

The report proposes a scenario of sustained expansion based on the exploitation of the country's vast natural resources: Argentina has sufficient reserves to supply domestic demand for oil for more than a century and natural gas for more than two centuries.

Within this framework, and with YPF as the central actor, the strategic objective is to position the country as a net energy exporter by 2030, focusing on the development of Vaca Muerta, investment in LNG and improvements in operational efficiency.

This paradigm shift occurs in an international context where energy security became a priority, especially after the war in the Middle East. The need to guarantee supply, diversify sources and advance the energy transition opens up an unprecedented window of opportunity for Argentina. In this regard, Carlos Ormachea, president of CEPH, highlighted the structural change that the country is going through: “Historically, the increase in international prices transformed into a growing deficit for Argentina. Today, however, it boosts the trade balance surplus

.”

The study highlights that, for the first time, Argentina has the capacity to supply its domestic demand and, at the same time, to project itself as a global supplier: “For the first time in history, we have the resources to supply local demand and, at the same time, to form a large scale export platform aimed at supplying global demand.”

This scenario contrasts with the recent past. Oil production fell steadily until 2017 due to decoupled domestic prices and the depletion of conventional fields. From then on, the recovery in prices and the advance of the unconventional economy fueled growth that reached an all-time record in 2025. In gas, the recovery began in 2013 with the Gas Plan and the development of Vaca Muerta, also with peaks in 2025

.

For years, the combination of falling productivity and rising demand resulted in a strong energy trade deficit and a heavy burden of subsidies. The report is convincing: “Over the past few decades, there have been extended periods of frozen rates or increases well below inflation, leading to significant reductions in rates in real

terms.”

In this context, energy subsidies averaged 1.7 points of GDP over the last decade, being a key factor in fiscal deterioration.

However, this trend began to reverse: “Starting in 2022, energy subsidies began to decrease... In 2025, subsidies totaled USD 3,999 million, equivalent to 0.6% of GDP”, marking a change towards a more sustainable scheme aligned with the fiscal discipline promoted by the current administration.

For export potential to materialize, the report establishes three key conditions: a strong increase in investment, the alignment of domestic prices with international values and the consolidation of a regulatory framework that encourages new investments.

.

In line with a pro-investment agenda, CEPH proposes to extend the benefits of the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) to all hydrocarbon production, eliminate export withholding and reduce the tax burden in production basins. The first liquefaction projects were made possible by these incentives and their extension could boost investment in the sector

.

Three possible scenarios:

The moderate scenario, considered the most likely, predicts gradual growth with an annual increase of 5% in shale oil wells.

For 2030, it projects exports of USD 17,741 million, imports of USD 3,193 million and a surplus of USD 14,548 million. By 2035, exports would amount to USD 22,382 million, with a positive balance of USD 18,535 million. It would require investments of between USD 11 billion and USD 15 billion annually between 2026

and 2035.

The expansionary scenario suggests faster growth, with wells increasing to 11% per year. By 2030, exports would reach USD 27,945 million and the surplus USD 24,639 million. For 2035, USD 41,758 million are projected in exports and a positive balance of USD 37,678 million. The investments needed would range from $12 billion to $21 billion annually

.

Finally, the accelerated scenario anticipates the objectives for 2030, with exports of USD 40,074 million and a surplus of USD 36,768 million that year. By 2035, exports would be USD 41,351 million. This scenario would require investments of between USD 13,000 and USD 27

billion annually.

Carlos Ormachea summarized the vision of the sector: “It is a challenging path, but today it is the one we see as the most realistic and attainable”, referring to the moderate scenario. While the accelerated scenario, although desirable, appears to be less likely due to the magnitude of the investment effort required.

These pillars are consistent with the government's economic approach, aimed at eliminating distortions and attracting capital.

It also highlights the need to design specific rules for conventional basins, whose maturity requires policies that reduce productive decline and sustain employment in producing provinces.

This production remains key to supplying the heavy crude required by the local refining system

.

The macroeconomic impact of this development would be significant. According to CEPH, “a more developed energy sector would reduce the fiscal deficit, lower supply costs and consolidate a surplus trade balance, creating conditions for long-term sustainable growth

.”

The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic growth path to reduce the cost of financing and attract foreign investment, in a highly capital-intensive sector. In this sense, the improvement of competitiveness and the articulation between companies, the State and unions appear as determining factors