The inflation rate of 1.9% is extremely promising. Not only because it broke the 2% mark, a figure that was widely discussed in the media, but for something even more important: core inflation was significantly lower at 1.6%.
Core inflation includes those goods and services that are not seasonal and do not have regulated prices. Therefore, the fact that this component was at 1.6% is truly a very important piece of information.
On the other hand, it should be noted that regulated prices are still suffering from the increase in fuel prices due to the situation related to the strait. As that situation stabilizes and seasonal prices stop working against us, we have a perspective of sustained decline in inflation.
Based on what July has shown, I believe there is an opportunity for inflation to fall below 2% again, despite it being a seasonally higher month. During July, vacations and the payment of bonuses lead people to spend more on tourist services and leisure. Therefore, having inflation below 2% in this context would be a very positive indicator.
Inflation no longer seems like an out-of-control phenomenon
We also received encouraging numbers from the economic activity side, especially in two sectors that had been more neglected than others and have a significant impact on employment: industry and construction.
The industry showed a timid growth of 0.4%, but growth nonetheless, in the month-over-month comparison. Although it still remains below the level of a year ago, the monthly figure represents a favorable signal.
In the case of construction, it was the most relevant because there was not only a 6.3% growth compared to the previous month, but also around 4.1% compared to a year ago.
If that monthly growth could be projected on an annual basis, we would be talking about a truly high expansion, close to 100%. This situation is possible, especially because there was a strong increase in the area authorized for construction. This, mainly linked to private works, allows for a favorable outlook for the coming months. Additionally, it is worth noting that public works tenders are already underway, specifically related to roads.
For these reasons, I believe that construction will gain significant momentum in the coming months, given its categorical impact on employment.
The recovery is beginning to reach lagging sectors
These signals are complemented by the relentless work of the Central Bank to strengthen its balance sheet. The entity has also been steadily building liquidity in foreign currency.
There were days when purchases exceeded 530 million dollars in a single day. The accumulated purchases are already above 12.6 billion dollars, while net reserves are around 10.6 billion dollars positive.
